Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 4.678137 5.476501 6.358391 7.403188 8.605546 9.944169 11.545731
2025-09-21 3.418041 4.485414 5.791135 7.498406 9.663542 12.308797 15.775656
2025-09-28 2.615809 3.780305 5.331930 7.533036 10.554355 14.531959 20.136449
2025-10-05 2.278103 3.568404 5.413822 8.212601 12.308757 18.034118 26.578548
2025-10-12 1.925552 3.242812 5.249854 8.479257 13.479019 20.840489 32.384726
2025-10-19 1.658206 2.981714 5.116316 8.736994 14.628177 23.706934 38.572147
2025-10-26 1.407963 2.692658 4.877840 8.770237 15.400105 26.052250 44.191273
2025-11-02 1.161832 2.358792 4.501902 8.502557 15.619845 27.514404 48.528988
2025-11-09 0.944657 2.033016 4.081106 8.081028 15.499522 28.370463 51.916180
2025-11-16 0.803472 1.825358 3.838808 7.937492 15.833246 30.005095 56.758194
2025-11-23 0.694289 1.660917 3.650428 7.861922 16.269038 31.844057 62.116604
2025-11-30 0.642038 1.608191 3.675108 8.203896 17.530935 35.293922 70.705432
2025-12-07 0.567611 1.494129 3.560342 8.257512 18.257680 37.867327 78.019015
2025-12-14 0.501042 1.385655 3.441231 8.286826 18.943598 40.444344 85.624942
2025-12-21 0.442544 1.284803 3.322376 8.298243 19.591396 43.010351 93.463455
2025-12-28 0.434985 1.313913 3.510880 9.031409 21.882015 49.123471 108.991231
2026-01-04 0.401865 1.267457 3.509266 9.319012 23.216336 53.379629 121.093307
2026-01-11 0.371746 1.223016 3.505206 9.599036 24.563905 57.788347 133.908375
2026-01-18 0.333810 1.147533 3.408545 9.634856 25.343180 61.035826 144.526906
2026-01-25 0.287460 1.035807 3.196025 9.342575 25.297855 62.446271 151.255951
2026-02-01 0.241681 0.914588 2.935364 8.882390 24.777757 62.720254 155.463187
2026-02-08 0.212253 0.840090 2.794691 8.725658 25.002127 64.734574 163.803541
2026-02-15 0.188739 0.780181 2.686495 8.643137 25.407300 67.211802 173.432370